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July 30, 2007

Death and longevity at TransVision 2007

Anders Sandberg of the Eudoxa think tank held a speech at TransVision 2007 in Chicago recently.

Sandberg's speech "Paths to life-extension" was based on four different scenarios regarding the scientific advances in biogerontology and the adoption of innovations in society.

The scenarios can be downloaded as a PDF-file here >>>

A graphical represenatation of the scenario decision tree can be downloaded as a PDF-file here >>>

TransVision2007.jpg

TransVision 2007 in Chicago, picture by Anders Sandberg

The four scenarios are driven by the degree the public believes life extension is possible and how rapid progress is compared to this. In the most conservative scenario people do not believe in the opportunities given by life extension, and the area also shows little progress - maybe because of lack of funding, maybe because of lack of scientific breakthroughs. In the radical scenario the gradual accumulation of results lead to a rapid leap, shocking public opinion into action. In the moderate scenario there is a great deal of interest in the progress of life extension, leading to a virtuous circle of investment and adaptation. And in the scenario dominated by hype life extension has been oversold and people are investing in a life extension bubble.

Sandberg stated that the main lesson to be drawn from this scenario exercise is that it matters how we promote life extension. It must not be oversold, and it must track real results - as well as anticipate near future progress. That is hard to do, both because future progress is hard to estimate (the paper gives some ideas for indicators) and because belief in that it matters and will come reasonably soon biases estimation, as well as the attention rewards for making extreme claims.

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Posted by Waldemar at July 30, 2007 05:10 PM